| 陈 彦,$2,项祖丰,汤健彬.基于时间序列模型的海洋溶解氧分析与预测[J].轻工机械,2012,30(3): |
| 基于时间序列模型的海洋溶解氧分析与预测 |
| Marine Dissolved Oxygen Analysis and Prediction Based on the Time Series Model |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 季节效应 随机性分析 乘积季节模型 条件期望预测 |
| 英文关键词:seasonal effect random analysis product season model conditional expectation prediction |
| 基金项目:国家科技支撑计划资助项目（2008BAC42B01) |
| 陈 彦 $2 项祖丰 汤健彬 |
| 1.浙江工业大学 机械工程学院， 浙江 杭州〓310014； 2.浙江工业大学 信息学院， 浙江 杭州 310014 |
| 摘要点击次数: 1884 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 季节效应是指某序列由于受自然气候等因素的影响，随季节的变化而呈现出周期性的变化规律。季节效应一般以月或季为单位。文中研究的海洋溶解氧含量因为受每日气温周期性变化的影响，以2 h为单位也呈周期性的变化规律，类似于季节效应。采用2 h为采样间隔，尝试模拟乘积季节模型来对溶解氧含量进行分析。利用条件期望预测的差分方程形式对序列进行短期预测，并在实践中比对预测数据和实际数据，证明取得了不错的预测精度。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Seasonal effect is that a series present law of periodic with the seasons change caused by natural factors. Month or quarter is seasonal effect unit. Dissolved oxygen content in ocean studied in this paper also change in a periodic unit of 2 hours because of the daily temperatures changing periodic,similar to the seasonal effect. So this paper described to analyze the dissolved oxygen using product season model, that is 2 hours for sampling interval. The article made use of difference equation which predicted by conditional expectation to predict the time series in short term and compares the prediction data with the real data in practice to prove a good prediction precision. |
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